Capital Flows to EM 2013

by Michael J. Howell23. January 2014 13:44
2013 saw another net outflow of money from EM Financal assets. We reckon around US$31 billion left EM stocks, bonds and credit markets last year. This compares to a net outflow of US$166 billion in 2012 and a net outflow of US$21 billion in 2011. For the record 2009 and 2010 were big positive years for EM seeing nearly US$600 billion flow in. We may be near the bottom in some EM markets. However, our overall EM risk appetite index at minus 6 stands well-above its minus 40 index lows, but admittedly still below the normal plus 40'ish peaks. In short, we should still wait a little before venturing back.

Tags: ,

More Money For EM...Again

by Michael J. Howell19. December 2012 23:40
Turkey, Thailand, India, Hong Kong and Russia top list of net financial inflows for month of November 2012. Money coming back into Emerging Markets again. Pace of outflows from Brazil slowing significantly.

Tags: ,

Christmas Turkey!

by Michael J. Howell5. December 2012 12:57

Our latest monthly capital flow data show that Turkey is currently enjoying the greatest pace of foreign money inflow of any economy on out database. It confirms the general picture noted some weeks ago of returning investor interest in EM.

Tags: ,

The EM Story: Part 2

by Michael J. Howell28. November 2012 13:32

Our more positive stance towards EM equities since mid-summer largely rested on evidence that the huge capital outflows had at least stopped. Latest data for October show a pick up in EM inflows, with India being a clear beneficiary. As previously argued, 'Risk On' phases typically see large pro-cyclical inflows into EM. 2013 is stacking up to be 'good'.

Tags: ,

Money Quits Japan

by Michael J. Howell28. November 2012 13:30

Latest October capital flow data show an acceleration in money flows leaving Japan. This may be due to the upcoming Elections and expectations of monetary easing. Notwithstanding, it is a stark contrast both to recent patterns and evodence from other major economies. It likely helps to explain recent Yen weakness.

Tags: ,

Copyright © - All rights reserved