Latest Global Liquidity October Update

by Michael J. Howell15. October 2014 17:12
There are few bright spots in the latest GLI (Global Liquidity Index) data which shows a fall in the month to end-September 2014 from an index of 48.0 ('normal' range 0-100) to 45.0. Liquidity conditions are sub-par and this means three things (1) flattening bond yield curves and strong bonds; (2) increasing market volatility and (3) softer economies in the future. The main causes of weak liquidity are that Central Banks are not pumping sufficient liquidity; the private sector is suffering poor cash flow growth and that liquidity in many international markets is negatively leveraged to the strong US dollar. This is not yet 2007/08 again but it looks to us very much lik 1997/98!


Liquidity Databook Published

by Michael J. Howell27. February 2013 18:53
February Liquidity Databook published today. Key points to look at are (1) reversal of ECB liquidity (2) acceleration of US Fed balance sheet, and (3) strong end-2012 growth in Total US credit.


GLI Update

by Michael J. Howell13. February 2013 17:29

January 2013 Global Liquidity Index (GLI) estimate at 57.8 ('normal' range 0-100) from 64.5 at end-2012. Global trend likely upwards, but ECB liquidity collapses. Full database released to clients. The GLI leads the business cycle by 12-15 months; equity markets by 9 months and bond and forex markets by 3-6 months.


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