Emerging Markets Latest GLI, April 2015

by Michael J. Howell29. April 2015 15:51

Emerging Market Liquidity rose again in March 2015, reinforcing an uptrend in flows that started around the second half of 2014. The EM Liquidity Cycle looks to be in a Rebound phase. Thus, the EM component of our GLI™ (Global Liquidity Index) touched 29.9 at end-March (‘normal’ range 0-100) from 19.0 at end-February 2015. Although the trend is up, the previous two months encountered some unusually sharp downward index revisions following the re-statement of Asian Liquidity data for January, largely we suspect because of timing issues ahead of the Chinese New Year. The new data suggest a less aggressive recent trend in PBoC easing. Even so, we still see a strong upward direction, fuelled by the current severe Chinese economic weakness. Chinese investors appear to agree that more money is being pumped in.

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