Why A Trade War Will Not Save The Trump Dollar

by Michael J. Howell28. March 2018 12:39

In recent days, we have been inundated with concerns about a coming tariff war and rising tensions between America and China. A major trade war is unlikely for many reasons and not least because of the growing importance of international supply chains. Moreover, capital flows matter more than trade flows, and here the big picture is dominated by the role of the US dollar. Unambiguously, China is trying to topple the USD. She has a long-term strategy we dub the Beijing Consensus, and a crucial step is occurring this week with trading of the petro-yuan contract starting on the Shanghai futures exchange. Watch this space!


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