The Big(ger) Question for the Rest of 2018

by Michael J. Howell13. April 2018 12:22

It is not trade tensions and not the Fed that ultimately matter for investors over the rest of 2018, but China and, specifically, the actions of the PBoC (People’s Bank). In short, what we really need to know is whether the PBoC will be easing or tightening this year. Latest data, now largely undistorted by the recent Lunar New Year, suggests that there is a moderate temporary tightening bias. Chinese monetary tightening proved a wrecking ball for investors in 2008 and again in 2015, but monetary easing from early 2016 boosted World Markets. We figure PBoC policy will return to a moderately loose stance through the rest of 2018. This matters.

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