Global View - China Slows More and Foreign Money Remains Skittish, But An Upward Inflection in Economy Lies Ahead July 2015

by Michael J. Howell27. July 2015 16:08

Latest data show further slowdown in both the broader Chinese financial sector (according to Shadow Bank lending) and in the real economy (judging from the Citibank economic surprise indexes), but negative pressures appear to be lessening. Our China component of the GLI(Global Liquidity Index) is already picking up and, if past trends are still a guide, this suggests that China’s real economy will stabilise over coming months.



Global View - Is This The Time To Buy Gold and Sell The US Dollar? July 2015

by Michael J. Howell21. July 2015 15:20

Short answer is ‘No’. Capital flows still favour the US dollar, and they do not yet look kindly on gold. That time may come, but we would first have to see much looser Central Bank monetary policies, at a time when the US is talking up its policy tightness, and/ or much weaker private sector cash flows, which would signal recession. For now, the US looks underpinned, and with the exceptions of the Euro, the New Zealand dollar and most Emerging Market Currencies, paper money still looks a better place to be than gold, its antithesis.



TSS (Tactical Style Selection): Emerging Markets - Liquidity-based Multi-Asset Allocation - July 2015

by Michael J. Howell21. July 2015 15:16

EM Liquidity Now Above Average

·      Quantity of EM Liquidity has jumped faster than quality

·      EM investment risks have tumbled over past six months



Global View - Wall Street Facing Stiffer Head Winds: 4 Arguments July 2015

by Michael J. Howell21. July 2015 15:11

Wall Street Facing Stiffer Head Winds: 4 Arguments

Numerologists worry about 2015, because severe market corrections usually have a regular 8/9 year pattern: previous peaks occurred in 1972, 1981, 1989, 1998 and 2007. With this year slated as the likely start of Fed tightening, there are understandably wider concerns. Fed Chairperson Janet Yellen delivered another warning to politicians and markets this week that US rates are set to rise. Market participants remain torn between a start-date of September 2015 and early 2016for the first rate hike, but both her words and recent movements in the Fed’s balance sheet seem to indicate a sooner, not later move.



Emerging Markets Latest GLI July 2015: Cash Returns to Emerging Market

by Michael J. Howell10. July 2015 15:30

Emerging Market Liquidity surged in June 2015 to 57.9 (‘normal’ range 0-100) from an index of 50.0 in May and 27.2 a year ago, according to the EM component of our GLI™ (Global Liquidity Index). The EM Liquidity trend is plainly upwards, with the index now sustained above the neutral threshold of 50 for the first time since 2007/08. In contrast, the recently popular Frontier Markets are suffering from extremely poor liquidity. They remain stuck at the bottom of our ranking tables and their liquidity continues to lose momentum.


Global Liquidity Latest, July 2015

by Michael J. Howell8. July 2015 15:30

The GLI™ (Global Liquidity Index) stands above average, having risen slightly in June 2015 to reach 61.4 ('normal' range 0-100) from 60.8 in May and from a near-term low of 32.0 in February. Liquidity leads, so this February Liquidity hiccup may be currently pressurising markets and disturbing economies. Looking ahead, the Global Liquidity Index has already rebounded, but the overall picture shows continuing divergent trends in its two dominant Global Liquidity engines.


Global View June 2015: A Final Blast of Cash? The China Connection

by Michael J. Howell30. June 2015 12:05

Weakening bond markets are telling us something important. Global Liquidity is rising again, driven largely by the Eurozone and China. The latter is important because of its size. Assuming that the People’s Bank continues to ease, global bonds will sell-off more; the US dollar will remain strong and EM stocks and commodities should rise.


June 2015: The Month China Overtook America

by Michael J. Howell29. June 2015 11:08



Global Liquidity Conditions (Risk) Emerging Markets, June 2015

by Michael J. Howell26. June 2015 17:00

The Emerging Market component of our Global Risk Index fell to 61.4 in May, compared to 64.5  in April and the recent peak of 91.1 in January.


Global Liquidity Conditions (Liquidity) Emerging Markets, June 2015

by Michael J. Howell26. June 2015 12:35

May 2015 proved another positive month for Emerging Market Liquidity with the EM component of our GLI™ (Global Liquidity Index) hitting 48.8 from 46.7 at end-April and 21.9 a year ago. Although the index lies a tad below the neutral threshold of 50, the EM Liquidity trend is plainly upwards.


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